Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
